542
FXUS64 KJAN 180324
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ALL IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EVENING NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT'LL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO,
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, A SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKEWISE DEVELOP, FOLLOW SUITE IN ITS TRACK, AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CWA. THEN WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. THERE, WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION, COULD YIELD SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN ENTERING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. /19/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MONDAY EVENING A NEARLY STACKED LOW
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAW NORTHWARD FROM THE
REMNANTS OF SARA TO RESULT IN PWATS BETWEEN AN INCH AND THREE
QUARTERS AND TWO INCHES BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. OVERALL INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED INCLUDING MEAGER LAPSE RATES BUT WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE
COLD FRONT, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT
PROGRESSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND THE GULF COAST REGION. THERE NOW LOOKS TO BE A
PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY WHERE TWO TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.
THIS AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDES OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN OUR
NORTHWEST TO GREATER THAN THREE INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. AS THE
RAIN ENDS TUESDAY EVENING IN OUR CWA, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BE
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SEND A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD DRY AIR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MORNING LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE
IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. OUR NORTHEAST
MOST ZONES WILL SEE 30S AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESS
OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL BUT A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE
WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY MORNING. /22/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST SFC WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MVFR CATEGORY
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME MIXING. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 81 67 78 / 0 10 90 60
MERIDIAN 56 78 66 76 / 0 0 80 90
VICKSBURG 62 83 64 79 / 0 10 90 30
HATTIESBURG 59 83 69 80 / 0 10 90 90
NATCHEZ 63 82 66 78 / 0 10 90 30
GREENVILLE 60 79 62 75 / 10 10 90 10
GREENWOOD 59 80 63 77 / 0 0 100 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/22/EC
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