926
FXUS64 KJAN 181246 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
646 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE TO 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA A ROBUST
LOW LEVEL JET POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS
PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST EJECTING LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO NIGHT TIME.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE
SURFACE TO 850MB GRADIENT STRENGTHENING RAISING OUR SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S ESPECIALLY ALONG ZONES SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR - PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
FORTUNATELY THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE MODEST INHIBITION AND
UNPRODUCTIVE LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MODEST
INHIBITION WILL CURTAIL WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY,
LEAVING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AT A MARGINAL RISK AT TIME
TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE THE
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUCH THAT WINDS WILL RANGE AROUND 20-
25MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 30-40MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR OUT OF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING QLCS. AS THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH, A FEW SHORT-LIVED WEAK TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HELICITY IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT, BUT OVERALL SHEER WILL NOT SUSTAIN LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SLOWED FRONT COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AROUND THE HATTIESBURG AND SURROUNDING
AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE MAIN POINT TO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
AS A HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WITH IT SIGNIFICANT
COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S BY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON THURSDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MORNING LOWS
ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES WILL SEE 30S AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING UP
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL,
BUT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. IF WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH,
MORE OF THE CWA COULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT. /OAJ/22/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SOME PATCHES OF FG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO
START THE PERIOD, BUT MOST TAF SITES SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL SHRA BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE SHRA ARRIVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. GREATER CHANCES
FOR TSRA IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AFTER
00Z TUESDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 67 78 53 / 0 90 60 10
MERIDIAN 78 66 75 52 / 0 90 90 20
VICKSBURG 82 63 78 52 / 10 90 20 0
HATTIESBURG 82 70 80 54 / 10 90 90 10
NATCHEZ 82 65 78 52 / 10 90 30 0
GREENVILLE 79 61 75 49 / 10 100 10 0
GREENWOOD 80 65 78 50 / 0 90 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/NF
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