300
FXUS64 KJAN 181801
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1201 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LATE MORNING GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC LOW. AT THE SAME TIME
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL MS. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND GRAPHIC AT
THIS TIME AND A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVERTISED ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
MORNING DOES SHOW SOME CLOUD COVER NORTH OF I-20. THE COMBINATION
ONGOING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS OUR CWA. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE TO 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA A ROBUST
LOW LEVEL JET POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS
PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST EJECTING LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO NIGHT TIME.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE
SURFACE TO 850MB GRADIENT STRENGTHENING RAISING OUR SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S ESPECIALLY ALONG ZONES SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR - PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
FORTUNATELY THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE MODEST INHIBITION AND
UNPRODUCTIVE LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MODEST
INHIBITION WILL CURTAIL WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY,
LEAVING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AT A MARGINAL RISK AT TIME
TIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE THE
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUCH THAT WINDS WILL RANGE AROUND 20-
25MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 30-40MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR OUT OF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING QLCS. AS THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH, A FEW SHORT-LIVED WEAK TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HELICITY IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT, BUT OVERALL SHEER WILL NOT SUSTAIN LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THUS THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SLOWED FRONT COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AROUND THE HATTIESBURG AND SURROUNDING
AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE MAIN POINT TO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
AS A HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING WITH IT SIGNIFICANT
COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S BY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON THURSDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MORNING LOWS
ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES WILL SEE 30S AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING UP
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL,
BUT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. IF WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH,
MORE OF THE CWA COULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT. /OAJ/22/NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CEILINGS TO START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL MS
UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. BY 01Z TUESDAY, SHRA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS
GUSTING UP TO 25KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL MS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM STARTING A LITTLE
AFTER 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE
GREATER CHANCES FOR TSRA IMPACTS STARTING A LITTLE AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. TSRA IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH STARTING AROUND 14Z TUESDAY MORNING.
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z
TUESDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 78 53 64 / 90 60 10 0
MERIDIAN 66 75 52 66 / 90 90 20 0
VICKSBURG 63 78 52 64 / 90 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 70 80 54 70 / 90 90 10 0
NATCHEZ 65 78 52 64 / 90 30 0 0
GREENVILLE 61 75 49 61 / 100 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 65 78 50 63 / 90 30 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/NF/CR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page