729
FXUS64 KJAN 190324 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO
APPROACH THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR, THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
INTERESTING RADAR SIGNATURES ALONG THIS LINE. HOWEVER, A LACK OF
INSTABILITY HAS THUS FAR LIMITED ACTUAL IMPACTS, WITH NO DAMAGE
REPORTS NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE 00Z KJAN RAOB SAMPLED
SBCAPE OF ONLY 13 J/KG WITH MUCAPE OF ONLY 270 J/KG, WITH LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL LA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MS AHEAD OF THE LINE. HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THESE FACTORS WILL APPRECIABLY CHANGE,
AS INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL IN SPITE OF RESPECTABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. IN THE MEANTIME, WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO,
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS WHICH ARE ABLE TO SURGE AND
TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD IN MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO CURRENT
0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2
INCH RANGE WILL BE COMMON, BUT GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT, SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TOMORROW, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST MS. WITH THAT,
WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING, THOUGH THAT THREAT
ALSO LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: A RATHER ACTIVE SHORT TERM IS ON TAP. MID
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THAT HAD AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER EAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NEARLY STACK LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST WAS RESULTING IN A GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND THAT HAS
INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
BUT LOWER 60S WERE HANGING ON IN OUR NORTHEAST. THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HELP PWATS INCREASE BETWEEN AN INCH AND
THREE QUARTERS AND TWO INCHES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR CWA
THIS EVENING, INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED INCLUDING
MEAGER LAPSE RATES BUT, OUR WARM AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND THE COLD FRONT TO HELP
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT PROGRESSES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE GULF COAST REGION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY WHERE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
MAY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. THIS AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDES OUR
SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEARLY
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO GREATER THAN
THREE INCHES OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES START TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE
BELT CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF MS. AREAS EAST OF I-55
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, WITH LOW END POP CHANCES
(BETWEEN 20-25%) TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW A
POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR TO SETTLE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLOSED SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS, MORNING
LOWS FOR THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WILL SEE MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING SFC HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS.
MORNING LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY MORNINGS GIVEN THE CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS. FROST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED LEADING UP TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY UPTICK IN WINDS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC
HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS AND TOWARDS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS IN TURN, COULD LEAD TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME OF THE MODELS REGARDING THE
DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS COME SATURDAY MORNING. IF THE WINDS ARE CALM
ENOUGH AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, THEN THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK, FUTURE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. A LINE OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR/IFR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE ALSO BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
RAIN. S/SE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
RAIN, SHIFTING MORE W/NW BEHIND THE RAIN ON TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN TUES
MORNING AT SITES LIKE GLH/GWO/HEZ BUT SLOWER IMPROVEMENT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS AT SITES FARTHER EAST. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 79 53 65 / 100 40 10 0
MERIDIAN 67 78 52 67 / 90 90 10 0
VICKSBURG 62 78 52 65 / 100 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 82 55 71 / 100 90 10 0
NATCHEZ 64 78 53 65 / 100 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 59 74 50 62 / 100 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 77 51 63 / 100 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/22/CR
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