555
FXUS64 KJAN 191022
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT,
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL SHORT-LIVED TORNADOS NOT BEING RULED OUT. THIS FRONT COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
THIS MORNING AROUND HATTIESBURG AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE MAIN POINT TO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
AS A HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT, BRINGING WITH IT
SIGNIFICANT COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON
THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
MORNING LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WILL SEE 30S
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST
POTENTIAL, BUT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. IF WINDS ARE
CALM ENOUGH, MORE OF THE CWA COULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT. /OAJ/22/NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. SHRA AND ISOLATED
TS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO FALL TO
IFR/MVFR IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE ALSO BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN. S/SE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF THE RAIN, SHIFTING MORE W/NW BEHIND
THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE RAIN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AT SITES LIKE
GLH/GWO/HEZ BUT SLOWER IMPROVEMENT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW
STRATUS AT SITES FARTHER EAST. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 53 65 39 / 50 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 53 67 38 / 100 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 76 52 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 54 71 39 / 90 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 77 53 64 39 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 74 51 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 52 63 38 / 20 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/OAJ
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