113
FXUS64 KJAN 191551
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENT HI-RES GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, LOCAL RADAR SCANS SHOW A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS MOST OF THE PINE BELT REGION. THESE LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
AREA LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
VISIBILITY AS BEGUN TO IMPROVE. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ALLOW FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. 12Z
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR PARCEL BREAKING THE CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 925MB. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MID-LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO OCCUR
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING WITH SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SKY
CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S RANGE AREAWIDE. ELSEWHERE, AREAS IN THE PINE BELT REGION
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT,
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL SHORT-LIVED TORNADOS NOT BEING RULED OUT. THIS FRONT COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
THIS MORNING AROUND HATTIESBURG AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE MAIN POINT TO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
AS A HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT, BRINGING WITH IT
SIGNIFICANT COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR ON
THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
MORNING LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WILL SEE 30S
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS THEREFORE LIMITING FROST
POTENTIAL, BUT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE WIND AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. IF WINDS ARE
CALM ENOUGH, MORE OF THE CWA COULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT. /OAJ/22/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AREAS OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE AFFECTING AREAS IN MISSISSIPPI
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 TO START THE PERIOD, WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
IFR CEILINGS ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. WHERE RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR, SOME BR OR FG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z-15Z TODAY. THEN
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO ALABAMA
TODAY. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL, SOME BR OR FG COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY
PARTICULAR TAF SITE WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 54 65 39 / 60 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 55 67 38 / 100 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 76 54 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 56 71 39 / 100 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 77 54 64 39 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 74 52 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 53 63 38 / 20 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/NF/CR
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