104
FXUS64 KJAN 192045
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD, DRY AIR TO SETTLE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
TIMEFRAME. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE
NORTH. HREF GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%)
OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS IN THE DELTA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 50S RANGE AREAWIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL MS. SKY COVER WILL BE GENERALLY
CLEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE LOW 60S AREAWIDE. WITH
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH A 3 TO 4 MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT, MOST OF CENTRAL MS COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. FOR THIS REASON, WE WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH DECENT HREF PROBABILITIES IN
EXCESS OF 30-60% OF GREATER THAN 25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE GENERALLY QUIET AS THE GRADIENT WINDS START TO DECREASE ACROSS
OUR CWA. THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS A
CLOSED SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BECAUSE OF
THIS, MORNING LOWS FOR THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WILL SEE
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING SFC
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
MORNING LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY MORNINGS GIVEN THE CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS. FROST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED LEADING UP TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO LESS OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC
HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS AND TOWARDS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS IN TURN, COULD LEAD TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS COME SATURDAY MORNING AND HOW WELL WE
COULD RADIATE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WHILE
THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING FOR MORNING LOWS BELOW 30 DEGREES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH AROUND THIS
TIMEFRAME AND THE MORNING LOWS GET BELOW 30 DEGREES AS SHOWN WITH
THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, THEN THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE OF A DAMAGING FREEZE. FOR THIS REASON, WE WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MAINLY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, FUTURE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT, LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS REGION WHICH COULD HELP
INTRODUCE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES (BETWEEN 20-25%) OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOWERED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH TAF SITES ALONG & WEST OF I-55 BREAKING INTO VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. ANY LINGERING SHRA WILL CLEAR SHORTLY & QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME IFR CEILINGS IN THE HWY 45 TO HWY 98 CORRIDORS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 19/20-21Z TUESDAY & LIFT TO VFR BY 20/00Z
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH SUSTAINED OF 15-20MPH & GUSTS AROUND 25MPH LIKELY, WITH THE
ONSET MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY & INTO THE AFTN HOURS. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 67 38 62 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 53 65 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 54 70 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 62 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 52 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/CR/DC
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