967
FXUS64 KJAN 201723
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1123 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE FORECAST REMAINS PRIMARILY ON TRACK THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA,
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THIS MORNING...
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS WESTERN
COUNTIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRATUS CONDITIONS, LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF FOG/MIST YET SOME AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FOG BANK ARE INSTEAD REPORTING LOW CEILINGS. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A
SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED DRY CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT, SITUATED OVER ARKANSAS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS 1/2 MILE, IN LOW LYING AREAS; PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82, AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY MID MORNING.
TODAY...
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS IN THE MID 40S AT 850MB LEVEL, IN TANDEM WITH
NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW PRIME 90% EFFECTIVE MIXING.
THIS MIXING WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 40MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT
SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE WITH STATED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP THAT OUR
HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THEN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
MONTH, TOPPING OUT BELOW 65F THROUGHOUT ALL FORECAST ZONES TODAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BY MID EVENING
TODAY, CONTRIBUTING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
TREND OUR TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
CULMINATING IN OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL PRODUCE OUR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WHICH WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY PLUMMET FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A COUPLE
OF HOURS BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, SO IT WILL BE PRUDENT
TO BEGIN TAKING SEASONAL PRECAUTIONS FOR WINTER BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE MOST ZONES REBOUND TO
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT, BUT SHORT-LIVED SPOTTY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT; ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED COLDER AND COLDER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS IN THE EVENT WE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST OUR FROST POTENTIAL SIGNALING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WARM FLOW RETURN TO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR
OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE MID 70S FOR A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT
OF AN UPSTREAM FRONT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEARING THAT IN MIND, WE HAVE ELECTED TO
COMMUNICATE POPS AROUND 20%, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DISAGREEMENT HAS BEEN SPURNED MOSTLY BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FRONT'S TRACK, AND WHEN IT COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
MOVING OVER THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT AND
PRECIPITATE OUT THE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE FUNNELING IN FROM THE
GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO FINISH OUT
THE WORK WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SOME PATCHY BR TO START THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AS A COLD
FRONT SPREADS BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS AT TIMES BEFORE 00Z THURSDAY. SOME LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AFTER DAYTIME GUSTS END. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER MORNING BR CLEARS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 66 37 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 61 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 37 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
FFC/
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