133
FXUS64 KJAN 211004
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT BROUGHT
IN A SURGE OF COLDER AIR, LEADING TO NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS
LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING DAYS. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALREADY LOOK TO BE OVERACHIEVING THIS MORNING, AND
KEEPING IN LINE WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES WE
HAVE SIGNALED A LIMITED FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MARKING THE SEASON'S FIRST FREEZE.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S, CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. /OAJ/
SATURDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GO INTO MID WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR A
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THANKSGIVING DAY.
A POWER JET STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE IT'S
RELENTLESS BARRAGE ON THE WEST COAST, AND THIS WILL FORCE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION BRINGING MUCH MILDER
CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT FLAT HOWEVER, AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE POLAR FRONT TO DIP BACK INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH LIGHT RAINFALL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING DAY: A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND IMPACTFUL
WEATHER SYSTEM WITH STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A LOT OF
VARIABILITY AND DISCONTINUITY IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONCERNING INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, AND THAT
IS RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE GUSTY NW WIND HAS SUBSIDED BUT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
GUST 18-22KTS AGAIN BY 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 37 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 62 36 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 65 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 67 38 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 38 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 35 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/EC/
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