199
FXUS64 KJAN 142205
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AND WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COULD INCITE VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE LOWER PINE BELT
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE, EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR BUILDING AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC/WEST COAST REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS, A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
LIFT WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, THE FAST SYSTEM SPEED WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TURN
AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY: THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WE
HAVE STARTED MESSAGING FOR THE COLD GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS AND COLD DAYTIME READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
MUCH IF ANY ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
QUESTION CONCERNING HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL GET EARLY IN THE
WEEK GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL WAVE WITH CLOUD/PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. EVENTUALLY, THE DEEPER
ARCTIC AIR WILL WIN OUT HOWEVER BEHIND ANY DEPARTING SYSTEMS, AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN COLDER LOWS BEYOND THE FORECAST TIME RANGE.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH OF A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL BE MOVING WITHIN THE POLAR STREAM. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES
SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A LIGHT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE ACTUAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN, THE COLD AIR IS NOT A QUESTION WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN WINTRY FORM OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. ONE KEY THING TO CONSIDER, AS RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN,
IS THAT JUST LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL ISSUES WITH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT IS EXPECTED, SO
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. FOR
NOW, WE'LL HOLD OFF GOING INTO MUCH DETAIL ON ANY POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITE GLH BY 09Z BUT WAS NOT REFLECTED
IN TAFS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 34 57 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 32 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 33 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 36 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 38 56 32 59 / 0 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 32 51 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 32 54 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/KP
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