905
FXUS64 KJAN 150905
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1036MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, A NEARLY STATIONARY
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND HELP THE DRY COLD FRONT STALL ACROSS
OUR CWA TONIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND HELP DEVELOP
CONVECTION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES THIS EVENING. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT'S AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA
TONIGHT AS WELL. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VERY LOW POPS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES TONIGHT AND THIS
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL END LONG BEFORE TEMPERATURES COME CLOSE TO
FREEZING. OTHERWISE, TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY THAN WL SEE THIS MORNING. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF EXITING THE REGION AS WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THIS'LL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO, WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
STEADILY BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES, THAT'LL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GOOD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT'S PASSAGE.
IN ADDITION TO RAIN COMING TO AN END IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SETUP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL USHER VERY COLD DRY AIR AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY, UNDER
GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS & PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THEN ON MONDAY, NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR, AS THEY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. NOT MUCH CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. AS A RESULT, NAMELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AN "ELEVATED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUSLY
COLD WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. FOR THE
FIRST TIME DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES, THAT WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME, WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS AND FORECASTS. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 58 32 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 30 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 57 35 62 35 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 57 33 59 35 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 53 32 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/22
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