752
FXUS64 KJAN 160539 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
EVENING WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS/RAP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
TROUGH AXIS DIGGING DOWN INTO THE ARKLATEX, WITH 1030MB SFC HIGH
DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER
THE REGION, PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLE, FALLING NEAR FREEZING AREAWIDE (29-35F). UPDATES ARE
OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 446 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK, AND THE THREAT FOR A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT HAS INCREASED AS WELL.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL OVER THE LOWER PINE BELT REGION INTO THE
EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE, EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH COLD
NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS CONTINUING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR BUILDING AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC/WEST COAST REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ZIP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. WHILE LIFT WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, THE FAST SYSTEM SPEED WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN TURN AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY: ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST AIR
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT, AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE FOR
THE COLD GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS AND COLD
DAYTIME READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH IF ANY ABOVE FREEZING
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A QUESTION CONCERNING HOW
LOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL GET EARLY IN THE WEEK GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL WAVE WITH CLOUD/PRECIP DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE GULF COAST REGION. EVENTUALLY, THE DEEPER ARCTIC AIR WILL WIN
OUT HOWEVER BEHIND ANY DEPARTING SYSTEMS, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
COLDER LOWS LATER IN THE WEEK.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
IS INCREASING REGARDING THE THREAT FOR A COMBINATION OF
SNOW/ICE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WHILE
THERE IS STILL ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE MOVING WITHIN THE POLAR STREAM,
EVEN THE COLDER/DRIER (NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT) SOLUTIONS POINT
TO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING THE AREA, AND THE MOST BULLISH
MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUGGEST THAT A MORE
IMPACTFUL EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS.
WE ARE MESSAGING THE INCREASING THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER TO LINE
UP WITH WPC PROBS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET MELTED QPF OF 0.25"+
(GREATEST ROUGHLY ALONG/S OF I-20 AT THIS POINT), AND WE CONTINUE
TO STRESS THAT JUST LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES WITH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT IS
EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD MATERIALIZE AS WELL, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS POINT TO
SNOW/SLEET BEING THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST UPDATES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO CALM. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN GENERAL, AND SUSTAINED BETWEEN
5- 10 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 32 60 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 31 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 34 64 34 66 / 20 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 33 60 36 62 / 10 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 33 58 35 58 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 32 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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