688
FXUS64 KJAN 170058 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TONIGHT: ONE MORE DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WIND STAYING UP A BIT
MORE IN SOME AREAS AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, IT WON'T BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, BUT SOME AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM.
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL IT
REACHES OUR AREA, THIS WILL YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EAST
OF THE MS RIVER, WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST ACROSS AR AND NORTHEAST LA
MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED, BUT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCES SOUTH OF I-
20. IF INSTABILITY WERE GREATER, THE ANTICIPATED STRONG WIND SHEAR
WOULD SUGGEST SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT FOR NOW, THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A NORTHERLY WIND BRINGING THE FIRST
TASTE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY BE PESKY
AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
/DL/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL INVADE THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING UNTIL MID WEEK. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY BE ANOMALOUS, BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
THAT IT WILL NOT BE RECORD LEVEL - SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AN "ELEVATED" THREAT IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR A PROLONGED
STRETCH (IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME).
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S,
AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY DIP TO THE 5-10 RANGE FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY CULMINATE IN THE ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW "COLD ADVISORY"
PRODUCTS, BUT WE SHOULD NOT NEED THE "EXTREME COLD WARNING"
HEADLINE FOR THIS COLD AIR EVENT.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT: TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN POINTING MORE TO A SUPPRESSED WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION
EVENT, AND THE MAJORITY INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW KEEPING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO ALSO LIMITS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE POWER GRID IN OUR AREA. WITH ALL
THIS SAID, THE TIME WINDOW FOR A POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL ABOUT
FIVE DAYS OUT, AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF THE MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS COLD WEATHER PATTERN. MOREOVER, JUST LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING IF/WHEN IT ACCUMULATES, SO EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOOKING TO LATE IN THE WEEK, MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY NOW AND THIS WOULD BRING AN END TO ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-25KFT, WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
TONIGHT & SHIFTING SOUTHERLY, SUSTAINED UP TO 15MPH & GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25MPH, AFTER 17/16-18Z FRIDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 35 62 52 66 / 0 10 80 20
MERIDIAN 33 63 49 68 / 0 10 90 30
VICKSBURG 34 61 51 65 / 0 10 50 0
HATTIESBURG 35 65 52 71 / 0 10 90 30
NATCHEZ 36 62 53 65 / 0 10 60 10
GREENVILLE 35 58 48 57 / 0 20 40 10
GREENWOOD 35 60 50 60 / 0 10 70 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC/DC
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