399
FXUS64 KJAN 172238
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
438 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDCOVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING. TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING, COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO DROP QUICKLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -
ABOUT 20 DEG F IN 6 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A VERY
COLD WEEK TO COME. /SAS/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE SURGING INTO THE AREA AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND AND GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN "ELEVATED"
THREAT IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH (48-72 HR
POTENTIALLY IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY FRAME). HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
LIKELY DIP TO THE 5-10 RANGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY: GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN CONFIDENCE FOR A SNOW EVENT FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEGINNING JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LARGE POLAR UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
NATION WILL SUPPRESS THE STORM TRACK TO ALONG THE GULF COAST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND AS IT DOES SO, GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE RESULTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE 33RD PARALLEL IN OUR
REGION WITH HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS FAR
FROM BEING WRITTEN IN STONE AS SOME GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
DRY AND MORE SUPPRESSED WHILE A FEW OTHERS ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND MORE SOLID SNOW POTENTIAL AS YOU GO SOUTH.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT SAME AREA IN THE GHWO GRAPHIC
FOR THE HIGHEST PROBS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND EXPECT THAT WE'LL
BE ABLE TO BEGIN HONING IN HIGHER PROBS ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
FOR SIGNIFICANT 2+ INCH SNOW TOTALS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE,
IT'S STILL POSSIBLE THAT SLEET COULD DEVELOP WHEN LOOKING AT THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, BUT SNOW SEEMS BY FAR TO BE DOMINANT TYPE. THIS
EVENT SEEMS TO BE PRIMARILY ONE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS GIVEN HOW COLD
THE AIR WILL BE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT CONCERN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM,
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT WE SHOULD MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY, AND WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. IF A SYSTEM DOES
DEVELOP LATE WEEK, IT WOULD HAVE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP THREAT,
BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RAIN WILL ONSET THIS
EVENING. TIMING FOR MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 6PM AND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 15 TO 20MPH AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN, LOW STRATUS WILL SETTLE IN TOMORROW MORNING, WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 68 30 38 / 70 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 70 33 40 / 90 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 53 67 31 39 / 50 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 55 74 37 44 / 80 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 55 67 33 40 / 60 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 59 29 35 / 50 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 53 62 28 35 / 70 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/
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