361
FXUS64 KJAN 180312
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
912 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL MS
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LAST BIT OF RAIN SHOWERS
EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM THIS EVENING SHOW A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIR PARCEL
BREAKING THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800MB ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUOUS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ONGOING CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. UPDATES ARE OUT. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 438 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING. TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING, COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO DROP QUICKLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -
ABOUT 20 DEG F IN 6 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A VERY
COLD WEEK TO COME. /SAS/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE SURGING INTO THE AREA AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND AND GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN "ELEVATED"
THREAT IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH (48-72 HR
POTENTIALLY IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY FRAME). HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
LIKELY DIP TO THE 5-10 RANGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY: GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN CONFIDENCE FOR A SNOW EVENT FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEGINNING JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LARGE POLAR UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
NATION WILL SUPPRESS THE STORM TRACK TO ALONG THE GULF COAST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND AS IT DOES SO, GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE RESULTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE 33RD PARALLEL IN OUR
REGION WITH HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS FAR
FROM BEING WRITTEN IN STONE AS SOME GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
DRY AND MORE SUPPRESSED WHILE A FEW OTHERS ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND MORE SOLID SNOW POTENTIAL AS YOU GO SOUTH.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT SAME AREA IN THE GHWO GRAPHIC
FOR THE HIGHEST PROBS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND EXPECT THAT WE'LL
BE ABLE TO BEGIN HONING IN HIGHER PROBS ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
FOR SIGNIFICANT 2+ INCH SNOW TOTALS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE,
IT'S STILL POSSIBLE THAT SLEET COULD DEVELOP WHEN LOOKING AT THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, BUT SNOW SEEMS BY FAR TO BE DOMINANT TYPE. THIS
EVENT SEEMS TO BE PRIMARILY ONE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS GIVEN HOW COLD
THE AIR WILL BE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT CONCERN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM,
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT WE SHOULD MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY, AND WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. IF A SYSTEM DOES
DEVELOP LATE WEEK, IT WOULD HAVE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP THREAT,
BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 8-10KFT EXIST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM 18/08-10Z SATURDAY. CEILINGS FROM MVFR STRATUS WILL
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PSBL TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR AT
GLH & GWO. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY, MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH LIFTING
OF THE MVFR STRATUS TO VFR CEILINGS. MAIN AREAS WHERE THIS WILL BE
LIKELY IS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES ALONG & SOUTH OF I-20
(JAN, HKS, MEI, HBG, PIB & HEZ). GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, SUSTAINED
AROUND 15MPH & GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25MPH, ARE POSSIBLE, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH & SHIFT NORTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY IN THE DELTA &
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 68 30 38 / 60 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 70 33 40 / 80 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 51 67 31 39 / 50 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 74 37 44 / 60 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 53 67 33 40 / 60 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 48 59 29 35 / 50 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 62 28 35 / 60 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS/EC/DC
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