715
FXUS64 KJAN 190002
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN THE FIRST TASTE OF A
SHARPLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, IT HAS BEEN A
RATHER BALMY DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AT HATTIESBURG AND COLUMBIA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET,
BUT MOST PRECIP HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT, LOW
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND
IN COLD ADVECTION. WITH THE STRONG CAA CONTINUING DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S, AND GUSTY
N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S AND LOWER 30S EVEN
DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRODUCING THE CLOUDS
TOMORROW MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES, MAINLY IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST MS. THESE WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS. /DL/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BUT, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WHOLE CWA SEVERAL NIGHTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
COME SUNDAY EVENING A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
COVER MOST OF THE CONUS. A >1036MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL BRING IN VERY COLD AND DRY AIR. MORNING LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, COMBINED
WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT TIMES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST
MONDAY WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP S OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
GULF WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
CONSIDERING HOW COLD IT WILL BE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
CWA, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STICK ON SURFACES AND
BEGIN HAZARDS ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WEST OF STARKVILLE
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT WHILE THE GREATEST
SNOW AMOUNTS; PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY EVENING AS BOTH THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT
EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 13-17F. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COLD NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL START OUT
NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL BY EVENING. THE
RESULTING CAA AND SNOW MELT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
DESPITE NEAR FULL INSOLATION. THURSDAY MORNING THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
WILL SEND MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND ONLY THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING. AS CONSENSUS REMAINS DRY WL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO OUR CWA BUT THIS SYSTEM WL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS OUR CWA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND BUY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS WILL
MODERATE AS WELL BUT MUCH OF THE CWA WL START OFF IN THE TEENS
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
/22/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN A
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS AS WE GO THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME -SN/--SN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF VISBILITY. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 31 39 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 32 41 18 36 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 30 40 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 36 45 20 41 / 20 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 32 40 20 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 29 34 19 32 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 29 35 17 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ042>066-072>074.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
DL/22/EC
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