976
FXUS64 KJAN 190919
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT ...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SERVE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, REMAINING LOW STRATUS COULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THE
DAY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WE COULD SEE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO IN SOME
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. ANY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SNOW FLURRY WOULD YIELD
NO NOTICEABLE AFFECT ON VISIBILITY NOR PRESENT ANY HAZARD, BUT WOULD
BE AN INTERESTING NOVELTY FOR THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S/40S NORTH TO
SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH OF I-20 AND TO AROUND 20 TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-10 F RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD,
VALID FROM 6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY. /86/
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REALLY MENTION FOR MONDAY, BEYOND
THE DISPARATE INGREDIENTS FOR AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM BEGINNING
TO COALESCE UPSTREAM. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TAKEN ROOT ACROSS THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BY EXTENSION COLD
AIR TO ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OPEN NORTHERLY CHANNEL THAT A REINFORCING ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL SOON TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 20F FOR THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST SITES WITH AREAS OF
EFFICIENT DRAINAGE OR HIGH ELEVATION WILL RANGE IN THE HIGH TEENS.
BRISK OVERNIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL INHIBIT
TOTAL DECOUPLING AHEAD OF A >1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST MONDAY WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY STICK ON SURFACES AND BEGIN CREATE HAZARDS ACROSS OUR CWA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE LEAST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT, WITH AREAS SEEING EITHER A
DUSTING OR NO SNOW AT ALL. ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ABOUT 50 MILES EXPECT A DUSTING AND TOTALS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR TWO. THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS; PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF FOUR
INCHES, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AND DRY FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK; VARIABLE WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION/HYDROMETEORS ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST
CAUSE FOR CONCERN WILL BE OUR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK/WINTER STORM. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS ARE
NOT PROJECTED TO BREAK 20F UNTIL FRIDAY, SO PREPARE TO BUNDLE UP AT
NIGHT! DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS ALL FORECAST ZONES. GENERALLY SPEAKING LOCALIZED GEOGRAPHIC
AFFECTS LIKE DRAINAGE AND ELEVATION WILL BE WASHED OUT THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC REGIME DOMINATES ENTIRELY.
NEXT WEEK...
ON SUNDAY THE 26TH NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST NIGHT IN A WEEK WITH WIND
CHILLS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ANY OF FORECAST SITES, WITH AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SEEING WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THE REBOUNDING OF OUR TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE ARCTIC HIGH DISLODGING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SHIFTING EASTWARDS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT
MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MESOSCALE PATTERN,
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS
FAR OUT WE ARE ERRING ON A MORE VAGUE FORECAST FOR THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN; NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THESE SHOWERS. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES TO 25 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING GENERALLY AFTER 18Z. SOME -SN/--SN
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z, BUT THIS
WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITY. /EC/86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 39 20 38 22 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 41 18 36 19 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 40 20 37 22 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 46 21 41 22 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 41 20 39 22 / 0 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 35 19 31 22 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 36 17 34 20 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ042>066-072>074.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
LP/OAJ/LP
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