191
FXUS64 KJAN 200401
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
ALL IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING TO BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT, RECENT GUIDANCE
TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE INITIAL LIGHT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL MS. GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS
IS, JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW FROM THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO EARLY
MORNING TRAVEL ISSUES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO STRESS TO INTERESTS IN THE AREA THAT LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN USUAL. OTHERWISE, LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THROUGH MONDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MS. BETWEEN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND GUSTY NW WIND, WIND
CHILLS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN SOME
TEENS IN PARTS OF NORTH MS. THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY DECREASING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
PERSIST IN MANY AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A MIX OF
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT, WITH
ENOUGH OF A CONTINUING BREEZE TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. IN SPITE OF MORE INSOLATION
TOMORROW, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND CONTINUING WEAK TO MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS MAY NOT GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR IMPACTS FROM DANGEROUS COLD. /DL/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WHOLE CWA SEVERAL NIGHTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COME MONDAY EVENING
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL HELP
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST WHILE A
DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HELPS TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. CONSIDERING HOW COLD IT WILL BE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CWA, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STICK ON
SURFACES AND BEGIN HAZARDS ACROSS OUR CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS UP TO
INTERSTATE 20. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME IN WITH LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS;
PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING
AS BOTH THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 12-17F. THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT RIDGING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COLD NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE DAY OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL START OUT NORTHWESTERLY AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL BY EVENING. THE RESULTING CAA AND SNOW
MELT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S DESPITE NEAR FULL INSOLATION.
THURSDAY MORNING THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
OUR REGION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL SEND MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH OUR CWA REMAINING
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS WILL MODERATE
AS WELL BUT MUCH OF THE CWA WL START OFF IN THE TEENS AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING AND IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. /22/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 18 37 22 32 / 0 0 20 60
MERIDIAN 18 36 20 32 / 0 0 10 60
VICKSBURG 19 37 22 32 / 0 0 20 50
HATTIESBURG 21 42 22 32 / 0 0 10 80
NATCHEZ 18 39 23 31 / 0 0 30 70
GREENVILLE 17 31 21 31 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 15 34 21 32 / 0 0 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ042>066-072>074.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
EC/DL/22
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