502
FXUS64 KJAN 201127
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
COLD AIR IS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE CONUS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL PRECONDITION
THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WINTRY PRECIP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMS IN EAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID TO UPPER JET. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE, THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE AN ONSET OF SNOW PREDAWN TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
SNOW ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH
LIGHTEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR (UP TO 2 INCHES), AND
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE HWY 84/98 CORRIDORS (2 TO
4 INCHES). SNOW ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IS LIKELY TO COME FROM THE
ONSET, PREDAWN TUESDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE ELEVATED COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE
SHORTLIVED AS IT QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE BANDING
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE PINE BELT AND FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THAT SAID, ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HAVE BE RESOLVED IN
THE NEARER TERM. OVERALL, THINGS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH DRYING OUT THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHERN EDGE ON THE WINTER HWO GRAPHIC AND
MAINTAINED ELEVATED FOR I-20 AND SIGNIFICANT FOR HWY 84/98. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER (MARION,
LAMAR, FORREST). A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR I-20 AND
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BITTERLY COLD DURING THIS EVENT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. COUPLED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH, GUSTING 15 TO 20 AT TIMES, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS, POSSIBLY LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ANY
AREAS THAT SEE SNOW PACK WILL DEFINITELY BE PRIMED FOR A VERY COLD
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
DANGEROUS FOR PEOPLE. PIPES, PLANTS AND PETS. BE SURE TO WRAP PIPES,
DRIP FAUCETS AND BRING PLANTS AND PETS INSIDE. CHECK ON NEIGHBORS
TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE COLD READY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ALONG WITH AN AREAWIDE ELEVATED RISK IN THE HWO.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER,
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROMOTE RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY./SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 7 TO 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT JAN, HKS AND HEZ./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 37 23 34 13 / 0 20 60 0
MERIDIAN 36 20 33 12 / 0 10 60 0
VICKSBURG 36 22 33 13 / 0 20 40 0
HATTIESBURG 41 23 33 15 / 0 20 80 10
NATCHEZ 38 23 33 13 / 0 30 70 0
GREENVILLE 31 22 31 16 / 0 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 33 20 33 14 / 0 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ042>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ072>074.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/SAS20
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