992
FXUS64 KJAN 160350 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM GRENADA TO
NATCHEZ. MID EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A
POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE ARKLATEX. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HELP THE LINE ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS WITH A CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES
UNTIL THE LINE CLEARS OUR CWA. A NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
WHICH INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO VICKSBURG
TO NATCHEZ. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. /22/
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH SITES WERE STILL
REPORTING GRADIENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35MPH, GREENVILLE ASOS
MEASURED A GUST OF 67MPH WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BACK AT
7:22PM. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SOLID LINE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
RADARS ALSO SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
THAT MAY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL END FROM THE WEST
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WAS NEARING OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES AT 8PM. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
IT IS A WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SSW WIND ADVECTS A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. BETWEEN CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD DECK AND THIS ADVECTION, TEMPS NOW HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALMOST AREAWIDE. STRONG GRADIENT WIND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCLUDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. BUT STRONGEST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL MAINLY OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE FRONTOGENESIS IS INCREASING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH, COINCIDING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALONG THIS ORGANIZING FRONT, SHOWERS ARE ALREADY ONGOING. OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA
IN SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHWEST MS AROUND SUNSET THEN ADVANCE QUICKLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, DEPARTING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE PINE BELT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO LATER.
WITH THE LLJ FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH AND 500MB WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 100 KT ALONG
WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING, THE
LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ALONG THE LINE WITH
MULTIPLE QLCS TORNADOES POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. SOME TORNADOES
COULD BE STRONG. AHEAD OF THE QLCS, INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH MS LATER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO FLOURISH,
BUT IF ONE OR TWO DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO GAIN TRACTION, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THOSE STORMS TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. WHILE THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO, WE WILL BE
MONITORING IT CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY AS WELL OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. /DL/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: FOLLOWING THE FRONT/STORM SYSTEM, A
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, 10+
DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF THE
COLD THE AREA REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS AREAS NEAR THE ARKLAMISS
JUNCTION COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX BY MID-WEEK.
SYNOPTICALLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STRETCH FROM CANADA
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. IN ADDITION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE PIVOTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTH PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS
MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
THE ARKLAMISS JUNCTION REGION WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COOLEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY POTENTIALLY NOT RISING ABOVE
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLD PRODUCTS WILL BE LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL A FEW DAYS
AWAY, SO BE SURE TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEK. /KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CIGS AND A GUSTY WIND TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 08Z WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 KTS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED
ALONG THE LINE. BEHIND THE STORMS, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND REMAIN GUSTY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 52 30 54 / 100 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 56 28 53 / 100 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 50 29 53 / 100 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 60 31 58 / 100 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 44 52 31 57 / 100 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 39 44 28 46 / 100 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 40 47 28 51 / 100 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
042>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/KP/22
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