796
FXUS64 KJAN 160537 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM GRENADA TO
NATCHEZ. MID EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A
POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE ARKLATEX. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HELP THE LINE ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS WITH A CAPABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES
UNTIL THE LINE CLEARS OUR CWA. A NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
WHICH INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO VICKSBURG
TO NATCHEZ. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
IT IS A WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SSW WIND ADVECTS A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. BETWEEN CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD DECK AND THIS ADVECTION, TEMPS NOW HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALMOST AREAWIDE. STRONG GRADIENT WIND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCLUDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. BUT STRONGEST NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL MAINLY OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE FRONTOGENESIS IS INCREASING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH, COINCIDING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
ALONG THIS ORGANIZING FRONT, SHOWERS ARE ALREADY ONGOING. OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA
IN SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHWEST MS AROUND SUNSET THEN ADVANCE QUICKLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, DEPARTING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE PINE BELT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO LATER.
WITH THE LLJ FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT AS THE
LINE MOVES THROUGH AND 500MB WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 100 KT ALONG
WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING, THE
LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ALONG THE LINE WITH
MULTIPLE QLCS TORNADOES POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. SOME TORNADOES
COULD BE STRONG. AHEAD OF THE QLCS, INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH MS LATER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO FLOURISH,
BUT IF ONE OR TWO DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO GAIN TRACTION, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THOSE STORMS TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. WHILE THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO, WE WILL BE
MONITORING IT CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY AS WELL OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LIGHT WRAP AROUND RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. /DL/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: FOLLOWING THE FRONT/STORM SYSTEM, A
COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, 10+
DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF THE
COLD THE AREA REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS AREAS NEAR THE ARKLAMISS
JUNCTION COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX BY MID-WEEK.
SYNOPTICALLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STRETCH FROM CANADA
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. IN ADDITION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE PIVOTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTH PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS
MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
THE ARKLAMISS JUNCTION REGION WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COOLEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY POTENTIALLY NOT RISING ABOVE
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLD PRODUCTS WILL BE LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL A FEW DAYS
AWAY, SO BE SURE TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEK. /KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, AND WILL AFFECT KGTR, KMEI, KHBG, & KPIB
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE, WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS LINE. ONCE THE LINE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS.
OVERALL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AT MOST AREA TAF LOCATIONS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY, A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
EXPECTED. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 52 30 54 / 80 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 56 28 53 / 100 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 50 29 53 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 60 31 58 / 100 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 44 52 31 57 / 20 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 39 44 28 46 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 40 47 28 51 / 50 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
042>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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