488
FXUS64 KJAN 161005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS AND COOLER HIGHS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ANTICIPATED BEYOND SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PLUNGE OUR OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT, AND MODERATE OUR
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50F RANGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 45-50F IN THE NORTHERN HALF AND BETWEEN 50-55F IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF. ALTOGETHER RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
NEXT BIG WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM.
THIS FRONT WILL PIVOT AROUND A CLOSED LOW BRINGING WITH IT A
SHALLOW LAYER OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR. NEARLY ALL MODEL RESOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ENTRENCHED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM LAYER
LINGERING OVER THE SURFACE ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE SIGNALING A COMPLICATED COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES, TO COMMUNICATE THE MIXED CHARACTERIZATION OF
THIS PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER WAS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND
SAMPLE THE MID- LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILE, EXPECT
CHARACTERIZATION TO CHANGE. FOR OTHER AREAS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION FIELDS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LATE TUESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING
INTO THE AREA, BEFORE COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.
OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CRESTING IN THE HIGH TEENS, AND AREAS
SOUTH BETWEEN 25-20F. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION OUR WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL HOVER AT OR BELOW 10F NORTH OF I-20, AND BETWEEN 15-10F
TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS MORE UP-TO-DATA IS
OBSERVED, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR BELOW 50F UNTIL SUNDAY SO PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
/OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, AND WILL AFFECT KGTR, KMEI, KHBG, & KPIB
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE, WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS LINE. ONCE THE LINE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS.
OVERALL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AT MOST AREA TAF LOCATIONS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY, A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
EXPECTED. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 30 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 28 54 32 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 30 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 44 28 46 33 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 28 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MSZ026>033-
036>039-042>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page