647
FXUS64 KJAN 161725 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
BUT NW WINDS GUSTING TO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE ARE MAKING IT FEEL
MORE LIKE THE 30S. ALONG WITH THIS, PATCHES OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER EAST MS THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND PESKY LOW CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
THAT WE'LL SEE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, BUT NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN IN SEVERAL
AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS AND COOLER HIGHS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ANTICIPATED BEYOND SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PLUNGE OUR OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT, AND MODERATE OUR
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50F RANGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 45-50F IN THE NORTHERN HALF AND BETWEEN 50-55F IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF. ALTOGETHER RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
NEXT BIG WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM.
THIS FRONT WILL PIVOT AROUND A CLOSED LOW BRINGING WITH IT A
SHALLOW LAYER OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR. NEARLY ALL MODEL RESOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ENTRENCHED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM LAYER
LINGERING OVER THE SURFACE ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE SIGNALING A COMPLICATED COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES, TO COMMUNICATE THE MIXED CHARACTERIZATION OF
THIS PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER WAS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND
SAMPLE THE MID- LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILE, EXPECT
CHARACTERIZATION TO CHANGE. FOR OTHER AREAS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION FIELDS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LATE TUESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING
INTO THE AREA, BEFORE COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.
OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CRESTING IN THE HIGH TEENS, AND AREAS
SOUTH BETWEEN 25-20F. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION OUR WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL HOVER AT OR BELOW 10F NORTH OF I-20, AND BETWEEN 15-10F
TO THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS MORE UP-TO-DATA IS
OBSERVED, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR BELOW 50F UNTIL SUNDAY SO PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
/OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AN MVFR STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE
SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 30 54 36 / 20 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 28 54 32 / 20 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 30 54 36 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 30 58 36 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 44 28 46 33 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 28 51 34 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/OAJ
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