843
FXUS64 KJAN 170527 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MID EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1030MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
AND REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND
THAT WILL HELP RESULT IN MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
STILL SHOWED A LAYER OF STRATUS OVER OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. THIS LAYER HAS SHIFTED EAST AND STARTING BREAKING
UP THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND NOT AFFECT MORNING
LOWS. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THROUGH MONDAY:
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SOLID,
RESILIENT STRATUS DECK CONTRIBUTING TO THE EFFECT OF A BLUSTERY DAY.
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SOME AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AROUND THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF THEY OCCUR, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND WON'T RESULT IN ANY ISSUES. HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. ALONG WITH LESSENING WIND, THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AS WE LOSE THE CURRENT REGIME OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. WITH INCREASED CLEARING AND LIGHTER WIND, IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL BUT WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH THE HELP OF MORE PLENTIFUL SUN. /DL/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY:
THE GENERAL THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED AROUND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF WINTRY MIXED
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS BORDER
REGIONS. SYNOPTICALLY THE PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STRETCH FROM CANADA THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. IN
ADDITION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEFORE PIVOTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE WITH A WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS ARKLAMISS JUNCTION REGION. IN ADDITION AREAS
ALONG AND ABOVE HWY-82 WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY POTENTIALLY NOT RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLD PRODUCTS WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID
TO LATE WEEK BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, SO BE SURE
TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEK./KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL &
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KGTR & KMEI. WHILE AT REMAINING AREA TAF
SITES, VFR CATEGORIES ARE BEING OBSERVED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE TREND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY, AS SOME
CIRRUS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. HOWEVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY MONDAY, WINDS WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE
HOVERING AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 30 54 36 58 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 28 53 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 30 54 36 57 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 32 58 36 63 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 31 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 20
GREENVILLE 28 46 33 49 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 28 51 34 54 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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