248
FXUS64 KJAN 171128 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS AND COOLER HIGHS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ANTICIPATED BEYOND SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
WITH IT SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PLUNGE OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT, AND
MODERATE OUR DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50F RANGE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 45-50F IN THE NORTHERN HALF AND
BETWEEN 50-55F IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALTOGETHER RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT BIG WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM.
THIS FRONT WILL PIVOT AROUND A CLOSED LOW BRINGING WITH IT A
SHALLOW LAYER OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR. NEARLY ALL MODEL RESOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ENTRENCHED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM LAYER
LINGERING OVER THE SURFACE ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE SIGNALING A COMPLICATED COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES, TO COMMUNICATE THE MIXED CHARACTERIZATION OF
THIS PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND
SAMPLE THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILE, EXPECT
CHARACTERIZATION TO CHANGE. FOR OTHER AREAS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION FIELDS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. LATE TUESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING
INTO THE AREA, BEFORE COVERING THE CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY
AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS CRESTING IN THE TEENS, AND AREAS SOUTH BETWEEN
25-20F. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT WITH CONTINUED
NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION OUR WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
HOVER AT OR BELOW 10F NORTH OF I-20, AND BETWEEN 15-10F TO THE
SOUTH. A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS COLD HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
INTO THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS MORE UP-TO-DATA IS OBSERVED, WITH A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR
BELOW 50F FRIDAY UNTIL SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...MONDAY ONWARDS LOOK TO SEE OUR TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REBOUND BACK INTO SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S TO 70S NEXT WEEK THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED, JUST A RETURN
TO WARM AND HUMID CONDTIONS./OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LOW STRATUS ERODED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL AT AREAS TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION AS SOME CIRRUS
DRIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY AS THEY WERE ON SUNDAY. YET THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY,
THEY'LL STEADILY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE HOVERING AROUND 5
KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 35 54 37 / 0 0 0 90
MERIDIAN 52 31 54 37 / 0 0 0 90
VICKSBURG 52 35 52 32 / 0 0 10 90
HATTIESBURG 57 35 58 45 / 0 0 0 90
NATCHEZ 54 37 54 34 / 0 0 10 100
GREENVILLE 45 32 45 27 / 0 0 10 90
GREENWOOD 49 33 50 30 / 0 0 0 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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