937
FXUS64 KJAN 172120
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: COOL HIGH WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING ELSEWHERE AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT MILDER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'LL SEE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES
IN THE WEATHER AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING OUR AREA BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND GOING INTO EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH LINGERING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL
WED AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH WPC GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
DUE TO FREEZING RAIN (< TENTH OF AN INCH) IN THAT AREA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT SLEET BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE, SO HAVE ADVERTISED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE
ACTUAL FORECAST, AND WILL BE SENDING OUT A GRAPHIC THAT HIGHLIGHTS
A LIMITED WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR NOW. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, VERY
LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD REACH AS FAR SE AS THE JACKSON
METRO AREA BY LATE MORNING, BUT HAVE NO MENTION OF THIS AS OF NOW,
AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEEP
IN MIND THAT ANY ICE/SLEET THAT MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE OVER
NW/NORTHERN AREAS WOULD LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY GOING THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WED/THU NIGHTS DROPPING INTO THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS IN THE GRAPHICS AND GO AHEAD AND UP THE
THREAT TO ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT THIS WILL
HAVE ON FRUIT CROP/PLANT GROWTH THAT BEGAN PREMATURELY WITH THE
RECENT WARMTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SITUATION REGARDING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN BY SATURDAY MORNING, IN WHICH CASE THERE COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TN
VALLEY REGION FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IF THE SYSTEM IS SLOWER
WITH GREATER WARM ADVECTION, THEN WOULD EXPECT A GREATER CHANCE
FOR ALL RAIN. BY SUNDAY, WE SHOULD SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MOVE IN. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 34 58 35 43 / 0 0 90 20
MERIDIAN 30 57 36 45 / 0 0 100 40
VICKSBURG 35 57 31 38 / 0 10 90 10
HATTIESBURG 35 64 44 51 / 0 0 100 40
NATCHEZ 36 61 34 42 / 0 10 100 10
GREENVILLE 33 48 25 31 / 0 10 90 10
GREENWOOD 33 51 29 37 / 0 0 80 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/KP/
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