648
FXUS64 KJAN 180008
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
608 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING ELSEWHERE AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT MILDER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'LL SEE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE SHOULD BE
ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING OUR AREA
BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING, WITH
LINGERING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL WED AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING RAIN (<
TENTH OF AN INCH) IN THAT AREA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
OR NOT SLEET BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, SO HAVE ADVERTISED
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST, AND WILL BE
SENDING OUT A GRAPHIC THAT HIGHLIGHTS A LIMITED WINTER WEATHER
THREAT FOR NOW. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, VERY LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD REACH AS FAR SE AS THE JACKSON METRO AREA BY LATE MORNING, BUT
HAVE NO MENTION OF THIS AS OF NOW, AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY ICE/SLEET THAT
MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE OVER NW/NORTHERN AREAS WOULD LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY GOING THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WED/THU NIGHTS DROPPING INTO THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE DANGEROUS COLD IN THE GRAPHICS AND UP THE THREAT
TO ELEVATED GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THREATS TO THE
PUBLIC, AND WITH THE HIGH IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON FRUIT CROP/PLANT
GROWTH THAT BEGAN PREMATURELY WITH THE RECENT WARMTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SITUATION REGARDING A POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT, IN WHICH CASE THERE
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWER WITH GREATER WARM ADVECTION, THEN WOULD EXPECT A GREATER
CHANCE FOR ALL RAIN. BY SUNDAY, WE SHOULD SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO MOVE IN. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 4-8KTS./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 90
MERIDIAN 52 30 57 36 / 0 0 0 100
VICKSBURG 50 35 57 31 / 0 0 10 90
HATTIESBURG 54 35 64 44 / 0 0 0 100
NATCHEZ 54 36 61 34 / 0 0 10 100
GREENVILLE 44 33 48 25 / 0 0 10 90
GREENWOOD 47 33 51 29 / 0 0 0 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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