799
FXUS64 KJAN 180528 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1128 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ALONG WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS./15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING ELSEWHERE AND KEEP READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT MILDER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'LL SEE SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE SHOULD BE
ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CROSSING OUR AREA
BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND GOING INTO EARLY WED MORNING, WITH
LINGERING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL WED AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING RAIN (<
TENTH OF AN INCH) IN THAT AREA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
OR NOT SLEET BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, SO HAVE ADVERTISED
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST, AND WILL BE
SENDING OUT A GRAPHIC THAT HIGHLIGHTS A LIMITED WINTER WEATHER
THREAT FOR NOW. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, VERY LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD REACH AS FAR SE AS THE JACKSON METRO AREA BY LATE MORNING, BUT
HAVE NO MENTION OF THIS AS OF NOW, AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY ICE/SLEET THAT
MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE OVER NW/NORTHERN AREAS WOULD LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY GOING THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WED/THU NIGHTS DROPPING INTO THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE DANGEROUS COLD IN THE GRAPHICS AND UP THE THREAT
TO ELEVATED GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THREATS TO THE
PUBLIC, AND WITH THE HIGH IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON FRUIT CROP/PLANT
GROWTH THAT BEGAN PREMATURELY WITH THE RECENT WARMTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SITUATION REGARDING A POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT, IN WHICH CASE THERE
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWER WITH GREATER WARM ADVECTION, THEN WOULD EXPECT A GREATER
CHANCE FOR ALL RAIN. BY SUNDAY, WE SHOULD SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO MOVE IN. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
06Z FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TO CALM. THESE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY, WHILE REMAIN EASTERLY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH STRATOCU INCREASING IN THE
EVENING AS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 34 58 35 43 / 0 0 90 20
MERIDIAN 30 57 36 45 / 0 0 100 40
VICKSBURG 35 57 31 38 / 0 10 90 10
HATTIESBURG 35 64 44 51 / 0 0 100 40
NATCHEZ 36 61 34 42 / 0 10 100 10
GREENVILLE 33 48 25 31 / 0 10 90 10
GREENWOOD 33 51 29 37 / 0 0 80 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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