531
FXUS64 KJAN 181605
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE PINE BELT REGION TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE DELTA./15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. OVERALL, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HOWEVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY,
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT, WHICH IN TURN WILL CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS
THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ADVECTION SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CWA IN IT'S WAKE. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM MAINLY AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROADS, PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
AND SOME METALLIC AND GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
REGION OVER TO AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A "WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY" FROM 10 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THIS AREA, ONLY A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO EXIST EAST AND OUT
OF THE CWA AT TO JUST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, LOOK FOR STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO QUICKLY
SETUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS DAY BREAKS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE
DELTA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARN A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA, LOWER 30S TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE DELTA, TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PINE
BELT. /19/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LOWERING WIND CHILL READING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A
1044MB SFC HIGH HOVERING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S PARTICULARLY WED/THU NIGHTS. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE WIND
CHILL READINGS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE) FOR MOST OF THE AREA. USED A
BLEND OF COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AT
THE MOMENT, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE COLD GRAPHIC AT THIS
TIME AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD WILL CONTINUED TO BE
ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, CHANGES TO BOTH THE THREAT AREA AND THREAT
CATEGORIES IS LIKELY.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL FOR THURSDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS THE
CANADIAN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW DELTA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NW MISSISSIPPI COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. DANGEROUS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN
END BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. FUTURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON, WITH STRATOCU INCREASING IN THE EVENING AS SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DELTA AND AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR, NAMELY KGLH
AND KGWO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON AIRCRAFT,
TAXIWAYS, AND RUNWAYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL DECREASE TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END AREAWIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 34 43 20 / 0 90 10 0
MERIDIAN 59 36 46 20 / 0 90 30 0
VICKSBURG 57 30 38 20 / 0 90 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 43 51 24 / 0 90 30 0
NATCHEZ 61 33 41 20 / 10 90 0 0
GREENVILLE 48 24 31 16 / 10 90 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 28 37 17 / 0 80 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
15/
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