085
FXUS64 KJAN 182105
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE DELTA, THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A LIGHT GLAZE PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE
DELTA, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
AS A RESULT OF THIS POTENTIAL, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DELTA EASTWARD INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS,
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE
DELTA, TO THE LOW 40S IN THE PINE BELT REGION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOW TEENS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE DELTA TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE PINE BELT AREA. /15/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LOWERING WIND CHILL READING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A
1044MB SFC HIGH HOVERING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S PARTICULARLY WED/THU NIGHTS. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE WIND
CHILL READINGS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE) FOR MOST OF THE AREA. USED A
BLEND OF COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AT
THE MOMENT, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE COLD GRAPHIC AT THIS
TIME AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD WILL CONTINUED TO BE
ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, CHANGES TO BOTH THE THREAT AREA AND THREAT
CATEGORIES IS LIKELY.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL FOR THURSDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS THE
CANADIAN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW DELTA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NW MISSISSIPPI COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. DANGEROUS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN
END BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. FUTURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
ARE ON THE INCREASE, BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA AND AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR, NAMELY KGLH AND KGWO. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE ON AIRCRAFT, TAXIWAYS, AND RUNWAYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL DECREASE TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END
AREAWIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 35 42 20 / 0 90 30 0
MERIDIAN 59 35 46 20 / 0 90 50 0
VICKSBURG 57 29 37 20 / 0 90 10 0
HATTIESBURG 63 42 52 24 / 0 100 60 0
NATCHEZ 61 32 39 20 / 10 90 10 0
GREENVILLE 48 24 30 16 / 10 90 10 0
GREENWOOD 54 27 36 17 / 0 90 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
15/
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