102
FXUS64 KJAN 190255
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE RISK FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCAL RADAR SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT ECHOES BEGINNING TO APPROACH
THOSE AREAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY ON BRISK NORTHERLIES.
ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE LIGHT
BUT COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN SLEET. CURRENT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
AFFECT AND HAVE MORE DETAIL ON THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, MOST WILL SEE SOME RAIN AND EVERYONE WILL GET A BOUT OF
SEASONABLY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SLOWLY THAW OUT OF THE COLD SNAP. BUNDLE UP!
/86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE DELTA, THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A LIGHT GLAZE PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS THE
DELTA, WITH MAINLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT OF
THIS POTENTIAL, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DELTA EASTWARD INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS, BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE DELTA, TO
THE LOW 40S IN THE PINE BELT REGION. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 ACROSS THE DELTA TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE PINE BELT AREA. /15/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LOWERING WIND CHILL READING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A
1044MB SFC HIGH HOVERING OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S PARTICULARLY WED/THU NIGHTS. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE WIND
CHILL READINGS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 10 RANGE) FOR MOST OF THE AREA. USED A
BLEND OF COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AT
THE MOMENT, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE COLD GRAPHIC AT THIS
TIME AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD WILL CONTINUED TO BE
ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, CHANGES TO BOTH THE THREAT AREA AND THREAT
CATEGORIES IS LIKELY.
REGARDING THE WIND CHILL FOR THURSDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS THE
CANADIAN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW DELTA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NW MISSISSIPPI COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. DANGEROUS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS
GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN
END BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. FUTURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN
LOWERED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION,
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FZRA FOR
GLH/GWO AFTER 06Z AND UNTIL NEAR 11Z WHEN PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 35 42 20 38 / 90 30 0 0
MERIDIAN 35 46 20 39 / 90 50 0 0
VICKSBURG 29 37 20 35 / 90 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 42 52 24 44 / 100 60 0 0
NATCHEZ 32 39 20 38 / 90 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 24 30 16 28 / 90 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 27 36 17 33 / 90 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>030-034-035-040-041.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
15/CR/LP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page