752
FXUS64 KJAN 191124
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
COLD AIR IS COMING - AND IS IN FACT ALREADY HERE. AN AIR MASS
REPLACEMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE
BROUGHT TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 20-30 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
CURRENT EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT GREENVILLE
AND CLEVELAND, MS AND MONTICELLO, AR WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 20-25 MPH. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND CHILLS OF ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS - AND NO APPRECIABLE WARM UP TODAY -
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES STARING
NOW AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TAKES THAT PLUNGE THIS EVENING AS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES SEND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. HAVE ISSUED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THOSE AREAS STARTING AT 6 PM AND LASTING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
THE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT THIS COLD AIR AND A MIX OF RAIN AND
WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING.
BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WERE REPORTED AT
NORTHERN SITES, BUT REPORTED IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY NORTH
OF OUR CWA IN FAR NORTHERN MS. WILL LET THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM. AREA RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED TO
CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS, AND BE CAREFUL OF WET ROADS WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY ISSUES SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG WINDS DRYING THE ROAD
SURFACES.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
COLD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 25-40 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 15-20 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY'S
DAYTIME HIGHS OF 35-50 WON'T FEEL TERRIBLY WARMER EXCEPT FOR
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MESSAGING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TEMPS
AND WIND CHILLS.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE CONUS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET STREAM ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MUCH NORTHWARD EXPANSE OF PRECIP
CHANCES WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% WERE CONFINED TO MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 DURING THAT TIME FRAME, BUT A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE OR UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. DON'T ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO
START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. LOCAL RADAR SCANS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST OF I-55 TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST TOWARDS ALABAMA. CEILINGS WILL
START TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CEILINGS BY 10Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY.
/CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 39 20 37 20 / 30 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 44 21 38 19 / 70 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 34 19 33 18 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 25 42 22 / 60 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 36 21 36 20 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 29 15 27 16 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 34 16 31 18 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-
019-025>030-034-035-040-041.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-
075.
NF/NF/CR
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