576
FXUS64 KJAN 191728 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1128 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MOST MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
SHOW PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING, MAINLY
SOUTH OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO KOSCIUSKO TO BROOKSVILLE LINE. WITH THE
CONTINUING CAA, LOW STRATUS DECK TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, AND LIGHT PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MANY
LOCALES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL. THUS FAR, IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER
IN OUR AREA HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO PATCHY ICE ON ROADS AND BRIDGES
IN NORTHWEST MS, SOUTHEAST AR, AND FAR NORTHERN LA. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DO SOME WORK TO REDUCE THESE ISSUES, BUT
INSOLATION/INCREASING TEMPS WILL NOT HELP, SO WHILE TRAVEL ISSUES
WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD, CAUTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE USED IN
THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ONGOING THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON
BRIDGES WHERE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING AND TEMPS ARE BELOW
FREEZING. FOR NOW, WE DO NOT BELIEVE ISSUES WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO POST A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT WE WILL BE
MONITORING THIS CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE, HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE LOWERED BASED
ON OBS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS, BY QUITE A FEW DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. AND PATCHY DZ/FZDZ WAS ADDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
IN MANY AREAS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
COLD AIR IS COMING - AND IS IN FACT ALREADY HERE. AN AIR MASS
REPLACEMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE
BROUGHT TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 20-30 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
CURRENT EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT GREENVILLE
AND CLEVELAND, MS AND MONTICELLO, AR WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 20-25 MPH. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND CHILLS OF ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS - AND NO APPRECIABLE WARM UP TODAY -
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES STARING
NOW AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TAKES THAT PLUNGE THIS EVENING AS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES SEND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. HAVE ISSUED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THOSE AREAS STARTING AT 6 PM AND LASTING THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
THE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT THIS COLD AIR AND A MIX OF RAIN AND
WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING.
BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WERE REPORTED AT
NORTHERN SITES, BUT REPORTED IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY NORTH
OF OUR CWA IN FAR NORTHERN MS. WILL LET THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM. AREA RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED TO
CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS, AND BE CAREFUL OF WET ROADS WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY ISSUES SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG WINDS DRYING THE ROAD
SURFACES.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
COLD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 25-40 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 15-20 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY'S
DAYTIME HIGHS OF 35-50 WON'T FEEL TERRIBLY WARMER EXCEPT FOR
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MESSAGING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TEMPS
AND WIND CHILLS.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE CONUS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN JET STREAM ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD LIMIT MUCH NORTHWARD EXPANSE OF PRECIP
CHANCES WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% WERE CONFINED TO MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 DURING THAT TIME FRAME, BUT A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE OR UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. DON'T ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
FRAME AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
AN IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS, BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, PATCHY
DZ MAY RESULT IN BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THE CEILING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING
TO VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 38 20 37 20 / 30 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 38 21 38 19 / 70 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 31 19 33 18 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 25 42 22 / 60 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 33 21 36 20 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 27 15 27 16 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 31 16 31 18 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/NF
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