131
FXUS64 KJAN 200706 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
106 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES, NONE OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN OR ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCUMULATING. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES
END TONIGHT BUT THE WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW 10 DEGREES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW LIKELY STICK NEAR FREEZING AND BELOW FOR THE DELTA, MID
40S F FOR THE PINEBELT, AND 30S F IN BETWEEN.
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO BETTER
FOLLOW OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WERE UNCHANGED.
BUNDLE UP, STAY WARM!
WE'LL CLAW OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE A BIT BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NEXT WEEK LOOKING COMPARATIVELY BALMY (HIGHS 60S/70S
F). /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY: DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS ARE THE KEY HIGHLIGHT
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATING ITS STRENGTH, WITH OBSERVED
TEMPS BELOW FORECAST EXPECTATIONS ON ESSENTIALLY AN HOURLY BASIS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. WHILE THIS
MIXING AND A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE OTHERWISE, IT WILL RESULT IN
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY SEEING SUBZERO WIND CHILLS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. REFREEZING OF ANY LINGERING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
BUT THE PERSISTENT WIND SHOULD HELP COUNTER THIS BY EXPEDITING
THE DRYING PROCESS.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH WE SHOULD FINALLY
SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. STILL, TEMPERATURES MAY NEVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MS, AR, AND
NORTHEAST LA. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER COLD THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. FOR THIS REASON THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
THIS WEEKEND: THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL TRACK WELL
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20 FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WHILE
CONDITIONS MAY BE RATHER COOL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING, GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE RAIN, KEEPING PRECIP IN A LIQUID STATE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH AROUND 18Z THURSDAY
AS THIS DECK IS IN THE REGION. BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES
COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR, AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 20 45 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 19 46 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 19 43 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 22 50 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 20 45 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 18 35 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 18 41 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/DL/NF
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