664
FXUS64 KJAN 201234 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
634 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS AND LOWERING WIND CHILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST TO START OFF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A 1040MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOVERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE
WILL START TO SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MS, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHEAST
AR WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
START TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS/LOW 20S ALONG WITH
WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL SPOTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA COULD SET
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING COLD CONDITIONS. AT
THE MOMENT, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE COLD GRAPHIC AND A
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
FOR OUR AN ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS MUCH CALMER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DELTA, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHEAST AR WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE WEEK...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS
THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MS WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE NAM ARE SHOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE GULF COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS, LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER
COOL SATURDAY EVENING, MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
PRECIP IN A LIQUID STATE.
THE REMNANT OF A SFC HIGH WILL START TO BUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST
TO START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. FUTURE GUIDANCE DOES START TO SHOW A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES (BETWEEN 25-40%) ACROSS OUR CWA
HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH THIS LAYER IS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH AROUND
18Z AS THIS DECK IS IN THE REGION. BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES
COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR, AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE EASING. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 35 20 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 36 19 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 32 19 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 42 23 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 35 20 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 27 17 35 23 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 30 17 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/CR
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