829
FXUS64 KJAN 221946
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
146 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM,
MOIST AIR IS TRANSPORTED INLAND ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE RAIN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES, AND HIGHER TOTALS,
SOUTH OF I-20. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR I-20 AND NORTHWARD FALLING TO
NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, AUTOMATED, BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY RETURNED THE IDEA OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ERROR; THE COLDER GUIDANCE DELAYS OR
SUPPRESSES CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WETTER GUIDANCE IS
WARMER/CLOUDIER EARLIER. THE SPURIOUS FREEZING RAIN CHANCES HAVE
THUS CONTINUED TO BE ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST. TO BE CLEAR,
FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. RAIN ENDS LATER SUNDAY WITH
SOME AREAS AROUND THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LIKELY SEEING 1-1.5" TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF I-20 WILL BE POSSIBLE, NEITHER FLASH FLOODING NOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
WITH THE FRONTAL FEATURES THIS WEEKEND REMAINING SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH, WE'LL SEE LITTLE IN TERMS OF NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS THE
WET WEATHER MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS THEN ON TAP
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF I-20 AND IN
THE MID 30S F TO NEAR 40 F TO THE SOUTH.
WE'LL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S F. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT SURFACE TRAJECTORIES BACK TO WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP YIELD A MUCH MILDER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO NOT GO
BELOW FREEZING; MINS IN THE 37-43 F RANGE. THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES AMID FURTHER INCREASING HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER TRAJECTORIES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING DAY
OVER DAY TUESDAY (LOWER 70S F) AND WEDNESDAY (UPPER 70S F).
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ON
THE TAIL END OF A COLD AIRMASS WELL TO THE NORTH AND REMOVED FROM
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ADDITION TO ONLY MOVING THROUGH A
PARTIALLY MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F).
THE LIKELY TIMING OF MORNING THURSDAY ALSO INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JUST CONSIST OF A BAND OF SHOWERS; SOME
PLACES MAY EVEN REMAIN VIRTUALLY DRY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND WON'T BE
BRUTALLY COLD, BUT WE WILL NOTICE A COOLDOWN TO FINISH THE WEEK;
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S F FOR MOST BUT FALLING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY SNEAK DOWN BACK INTO THE
30S F FOR MANY THOUGH A FREEZE DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY.
AIRMASS RECOVERY BEGINS QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S F. /86/
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING A BLANKET OF
HIGHER LEVEL STRATUS (4500+ FT) AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED
RAIN PERSISTS, BUT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DO NOT SUPPORT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS. LOOKING AHEAD TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LOWER CEILINGS AND INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY; ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS SOUTH/ALONG HIGHWAY 84. /EC/OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 33 47 37 63 / 20 70 20 0
MERIDIAN 30 49 36 63 / 10 60 30 0
VICKSBURG 34 46 36 63 / 20 60 10 0
HATTIESBURG 37 49 39 64 / 30 90 50 0
NATCHEZ 39 48 39 63 / 50 80 10 0
GREENVILLE 31 49 34 59 / 0 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 30 52 34 62 / 0 30 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/LP/OAJ
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