281
FXUS64 KJAN 261750
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1250 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS WEST MS, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH
TOWARDS THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING AS THE 1028MB SFC HIGH
HOVERING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY DIPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FORECAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL
SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ELSEWHERE, AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84 WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN THE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA AND
BRING LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
LOCAL RADARS HAD A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY OVER NORTHERN
BOLIVAR AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHED BACK INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE NW-SE AXIS THAT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER AIRMASS
RESIDED. DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY HINDER THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS TIED
YESTERDAY AT THE TALLULAH-VICKSBURG AIRPORT AND ELSEWHERE SITES
TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TODAY SITES NORTH OF I-20 WILL
BE COOLER AND HELD IN THE 70S; NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
SITES SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE MUCH WARMER AGAIN TODAY AND TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TWO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE FIRST SMALLER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SHALLOW CONVECTION IN WHAT
WILL BE A QUESTIONABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
THIN MOIST CAPE PROFILES, AND SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY ULTIMATELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY, BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR TRENDS A BIT LONGER ON THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT BEFORE MESSAGING FOR IT IN THE HWO GRAPHICS.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE LARGER AND MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THAT IT WILL PRODUCE. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ABOVE AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERATE MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES
TO OUTLOOK A LARGE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REGION WITH TIMING SLOWING
DOWN SOME TO INCLUDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AND
WILL FOLLOW THIS CLOSELY IN THE GRAPHICS.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM, BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING SIGNALS FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
BREAK EARLY IN THE WEEK. SO WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER AND PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL IT
WOULD SEEM. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW A LINE OF LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEST OF I-55 SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE STALLED COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS
OVER THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE 21Z WEDNESDAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 82 61 78 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 53 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 82 62 78 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 56 84 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 59 81 63 76 / 0 0 10 30
GREENVILLE 54 79 62 76 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 56 81 62 78 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/CR
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