974
FXUS64 KJAN 271121 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
621 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER A SHORTWAVE UPPER
RIDGE TODAY, BUT WE REMAIN DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THERE
TO BE LITTLE RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WE CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT. OTHERWISE, AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IN SPITE OF FILTERED
INSOLATION, TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'LL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDING BUILDS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL HELP BRING ABOUT GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS
SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH LA AND SOUTHWEST MS,
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, A
MODESTLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS WITH
GUSTY WIND.
THOUGH SPOTTIER SHOWERS MAY LINGER, A BREAK IN GREATER RAIN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEN, A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AT LEAST INITIALLY, SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER. THOUGH STRONGEST FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA, IT SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO NOT BE MUCH OF
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE STORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
CONTRIBUTIONS TO INSTABILITY, STORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM AS
THEY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY MAY BE REINVIGORATED
ON ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTH MS.
AT THIS STAGE, THERE'S STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM. A SOMEWHAT FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA MONDAY, OR AT LEAST LIMIT IT MORE TO
SOUTHEAST MS. KEEP CHECKING BACK.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN
RETURN NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS A NEW SURFACE CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNING, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY AGAIN IN SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 62 81 63 / 0 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 83 58 82 60 / 0 10 0 20
VICKSBURG 83 62 80 63 / 0 10 20 60
HATTIESBURG 85 59 82 62 / 0 0 10 30
NATCHEZ 82 63 78 63 / 0 10 30 60
GREENVILLE 82 62 78 62 / 0 10 10 60
GREENWOOD 82 63 80 63 / 10 10 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/
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