855
FXUS64 KJAN 280535 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
INTO/ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THIS EVENING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S./KP/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A QUIET EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. LOOK
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. /SW/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST ASCENT, RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD CONSIDERABLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL PEAK LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE RISK
FOR STORMS IS LOW, BUT WILL SAY THE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD
INCREASE SOME LATER SATURDAY, AND ANY DISCRETE LOW TOP CELLS THAT
DEVELOP COULD HAVE ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR FOR A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IF UPDRAFT INTENSITY IS STRONG ENOUGH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SAT EVENING WITH A MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE LARGER AND MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THAT IT
WILL PRODUCE. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING
WESTERLIES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERATE MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
TIMING-WISE, SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR
THE THE MOST INTENSE AND ORGANIZED STORMS, AND THESE MAY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS MORE DOUBTFUL THAT
WE WILL SEE A SEVERE RISK EXTEND MUCH BEYOND DAYBREAK IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL ADD THAT BASED ON NEW
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES, AN ENHANCED RISK AREA COULD EVENTUALLY BE
ADDED FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
THE PROBS GENERALLY SHOW A NW-SE GRADIENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
REFOCUSING ON MID WEEK FOR THE NEXT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TIMING
REMAINS INCONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY FORMAL MESSAGING, BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE NEXT TIME FRAME TO
FOCUS ON. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. S/SE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY. LOWER, DOWN TO MVFR, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW STORMS ALSO BEGINNING TO ENCROACH INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, THESE WILL IMPACT AROUND HEZ BUT POSSIBLY GLH AS
WELL. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 63 77 65 / 20 30 80 30
MERIDIAN 82 60 76 63 / 10 10 70 40
VICKSBURG 80 63 77 65 / 30 50 80 10
HATTIESBURG 84 63 79 65 / 10 20 70 40
NATCHEZ 79 63 76 65 / 50 60 90 10
GREENVILLE 78 63 73 65 / 20 60 80 20
GREENWOOD 81 63 75 65 / 20 30 70 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/SW/EC/DL
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