457
FXUS64 KJAN 281448
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ALL IS ON TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD APPROACH NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS WELL, BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY MAINLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS STARTS TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MS. AREAS WEST OF I-55 WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. ELSEWHERE, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LATER TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ASCENT, STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND DECENT INSTABILITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AREAWIDE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW, BUT THE LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-55.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY, GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG
SFC LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START
TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND
MOISTURE ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS T-STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL TIMING, BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO STILL SHOW
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THE MOST INTENSE AND
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE
PROBABILITIES AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC), AN "ENHANCED" RISK (3 OUT OF 5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET GIVING US A BRIEF
LITTLE BREAK FROM THE RAIN.
FUTURE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SFC LOW HOVERING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION LOOKING AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WHEN OUR OUR NEXT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE MID WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. S/SE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY, AND IN SOME AREAS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SITES FALLING TO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH INTO THE AREA,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 63 78 65 / 10 40 80 70
MERIDIAN 83 60 77 63 / 10 20 60 60
VICKSBURG 80 64 77 66 / 20 60 80 70
HATTIESBURG 84 62 78 65 / 10 20 70 70
NATCHEZ 79 64 76 66 / 40 70 90 70
GREENVILLE 79 63 74 66 / 10 60 80 70
GREENWOOD 81 64 76 66 / 10 40 70 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR/DL
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