161
FXUS64 KJAN 290054 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
754 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TONIGHT/SATURDAY: SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. /SW/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO
BE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. PRIOR TO THE
EVENT, THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH SHOWER CHANCES MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME.
SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL SEND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMEWHAT OF AN
UNKNOWN WILL BE THE PREVALENCE OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AND
HOW MUCH THIS WILL LIMIT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
WE ARE LEANING TOWARD MOST CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BEING TIED TO THE
STRONG ASCENT AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN
WHICH CASE TIMING WILL BE LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME OF THIS BEING DISCRETE,
FOLLOWED BY GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AS WE GO THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK, AND EXIT THE AREA BY NOON.
THE CAVEAT AS MENTIONED WILL BE THAT THE CAP COULD ERODE EARLIER
AND THIS WOULD SPEED UP DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TIMING, BUT IT
SEEMS THIS WOULD NOT CHANGE THE UPDATED TIMING GRAPHIC ALL THAT
MUCH. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE GREATER COLD POOL
INFLUENCE THAT COULD HELP TO ACCELERATE TIMING NEAR THE BACK END
OF THE EVENT. IN OUR AREA AT LEAST, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS VS TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AND THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/ASCENT ORIENTATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AS IN
MOST SPRING STORM EVENTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR, BUT AS OF
NOW IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING FOR MID/LATE WEEK FOLLOWING A
BRIEF STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
DEFINITELY BEARS CLOSELY MONITORING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN TO EVOLVE THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS & GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WIND ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING & WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY LIGHTEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS & PICK BACK UP INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING COVERAGE
OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS & RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
BETWEEN 29/09-15Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME VSBY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MVFR, WITH ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY DUE TO
LOW STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT
MAJORITY OF TAF SITES WILL SEE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 77 65 84 / 50 90 30 30
MERIDIAN 60 77 63 83 / 20 70 50 50
VICKSBURG 64 78 66 84 / 70 90 20 20
HATTIESBURG 63 79 65 84 / 30 90 50 50
NATCHEZ 64 77 66 84 / 70 90 20 30
GREENVILLE 63 74 66 80 / 70 80 20 20
GREENWOOD 64 75 66 83 / 50 90 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/DC
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