701   
FXUS64 KJAN 290538 AAC  
AFDJAN  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
  
   
MESOSCALE UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN   
PLAINS AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO   
PROPAGATE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXPANDING EASTWARD  
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO THE   
MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE   
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WARM NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE  
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S./KP/  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
  
TONIGHT/SATURDAY: SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WESTERN   
PORTION OF THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA   
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S   
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH   
THE AREA, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCES   
ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE   
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. /SW/  
  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO  
BE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. PRIOR TO THE  
EVENT, THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY  
QUIET WITH SHOWER CHANCES MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME.   
SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL SEND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.   
INCREASING ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP TO INITIATE DEEP   
CONVECTION IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL   
LAPSE RATES AND A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMEWHAT OF AN   
UNKNOWN WILL BE THE PREVALENCE OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AND   
HOW MUCH THIS WILL LIMIT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.   
  
WE ARE LEANING TOWARD MOST CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BEING TIED TO THE   
STRONG ASCENT AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN   
WHICH CASE TIMING WILL BE LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR  
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME OF THIS BEING DISCRETE,   
FOLLOWED BY GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AS WE GO THROUGH THE   
PREDAWN HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST   
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK, AND EXIT THE AREA BY NOON.   
  
THE CAVEAT AS MENTIONED WILL BE THAT THE CAP COULD ERODE EARLIER   
AND THIS WOULD SPEED UP DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TIMING, BUT IT   
SEEMS THIS WOULD NOT CHANGE THE UPDATED TIMING GRAPHIC ALL THAT   
MUCH. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE GREATER COLD POOL   
INFLUENCE THAT COULD HELP TO ACCELERATE TIMING NEAR THE BACK END   
OF THE EVENT. IN OUR AREA AT LEAST, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS  
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS VS TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY   
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR,   
AND THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/ASCENT ORIENTATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AS IN  
MOST SPRING STORM EVENTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR, BUT AS OF  
NOW IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT  
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  
  
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A   
STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING FOR MID/LATE WEEK FOLLOWING A   
BRIEF STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN   
DEFINITELY BEARS CLOSELY MONITORING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A   
LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN TO EVOLVE THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW   
ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. /EC/  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
  
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH MS  
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH LA. THESE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO  
MVFR AND SOME TO IFR. WHILE TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE  
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO  
FALL AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO  
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ESPECIALLY  
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. /DL/  
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
JACKSON       77  65  84  65 /  90  30  30  80   
MERIDIAN      77  63  83  64 /  70  50  50  70   
VICKSBURG     78  66  84  64 /  90  20  20  80   
HATTIESBURG   79  65  84  69 /  90  50  50  60   
NATCHEZ       77  66  84  66 /  90  20  30  60   
GREENVILLE    74  66  80  59 /  80  20  20  90   
GREENWOOD     75  66  83  61 /  90  30  20  90   
  
  
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
KP/SW/EC/DL  
 
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