458
FXUS64 KJAN 300020
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
720 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING TWO ROUNDS
FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA. FIRST STORM
SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/NOON AND THE
SECOND SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH/LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A REMNANT MCV NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MCV.
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING/LATE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
HELP PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING. THE "ENHANCED" RISK WAS EXPANDED TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR. HWO GRAPHIC WILL BE UPDATED REFLECT THE NEW RISK AREA. ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE: DAMAGING GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL
(UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES.
TUESDAY THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD:
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRIEF QUIET AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR; HOWEVER, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-WEST ALONG WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES AND GETS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. REST OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET AS RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE AREA. /SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY STRATUS TO MOST SITES WITH THE LATE NIGHT TO MORNING
HOURS BEING THE GREATEST RESTRICTIONS. AS WE GO INTO LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, MIXING WILL INCREASE AND HELP TO
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS. IN TERMS OF
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL, GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
GLH/GWO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE HBG/PIB/MEI CORRIDOR DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IMPACT TO SITES
OTHERWISE. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 85 64 77 / 30 20 90 50
MERIDIAN 63 82 63 79 / 50 60 70 80
VICKSBURG 66 86 64 76 / 30 10 90 30
HATTIESBURG 65 84 67 84 / 60 50 50 90
NATCHEZ 66 85 65 78 / 20 10 90 50
GREENVILLE 66 83 61 69 / 20 10 100 10
GREENWOOD 66 84 62 71 / 30 20 100 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SW/EC/
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