157
FXUS64 KJAN 300540 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1240 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ALL IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE. THE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST LA HAS
DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP OVER SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN ASCENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING TWO ROUNDS
FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA. FIRST STORM
SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/NOON AND THE
SECOND SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH/LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A REMNANT MCV NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MCV.
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING/LATE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
HELP PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING. THE "ENHANCED" RISK WAS EXPANDED TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR. HWO GRAPHIC WILL BE UPDATED REFLECT THE NEW RISK AREA. ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE: DAMAGING GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL
(UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES.
TUESDAY THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD:
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRIEF QUIET AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR; HOWEVER, THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-WEST ALONG WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES AND GETS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. REST OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET AS RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE AREA. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS CEILING EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THE
STRATUS DECK WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MOST AREAS BY MORNING. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FOG CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, BUT MOST CATEGORIES WILL BE DRIVING BY THE
LOW CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOST
AREAS RETURNING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD TS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, FIRST IMPACTING GLH
AND GWO DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO 2", WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND TORANDOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 64 77 50 / 30 90 50 10
MERIDIAN 82 63 79 47 / 60 70 80 10
VICKSBURG 86 64 76 51 / 10 90 30 0
HATTIESBURG 84 67 84 55 / 60 50 90 10
NATCHEZ 85 65 78 54 / 10 90 50 10
GREENVILLE 83 61 69 47 / 20 100 10 0
GREENWOOD 84 62 71 47 / 30 100 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/DL
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