318
FXUS64 KJAN 300922
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG SFC LOW MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS EAST OF I-55 SEEING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AROUND THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND MOISTURE ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. LOOKING AT THE
OVERALL TIMING, MODEL CONSENSUS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TONIGHT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THE MOST INTENSE AND ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SEVERE GRAPHIC FOR TONIGHT AND AN
"ENHANCED" RISK (3 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED MAINLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES.
ELSEWHERE, A "SLIGHT" RISK (2 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVERTISED MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. MAIN CONCERNS FOR AREAS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ENHANCED RISK INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH, LARGE HAIL (UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES. AREAS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SLIGHT RISK WILL SEE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH,
AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENT EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE FROM BOTH
THE GFS AND THE NAM DOES SHOW PWATS OF 1.5-2.0". HREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONG QPF SIGNAL FOR THE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MS, NORTH MS, EAST MS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND ALL OF
OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.25-2.0" ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG QPF SIGNAL HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND PWATS NEAR 2.0", A "LIMITED"
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET GIVING US A BRIEF LITTLE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION LOOKING AHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WHEN OUR OUR NEXT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD OCCUR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS STILL LOW REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MID WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS CHANCES LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS CEILING EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THE
STRATUS DECK WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MOST AREAS BY MORNING. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FOG CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, BUT MOST CATEGORIES WILL BE DRIVING BY THE
LOW CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOST
AREAS RETURNING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD TS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, FIRST IMPACTING GLH
AND GWO DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO 2", WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND TORANDOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 64 78 52 / 30 90 80 10
MERIDIAN 82 63 80 50 / 70 70 80 10
VICKSBURG 85 64 76 53 / 10 90 60 0
HATTIESBURG 84 67 84 56 / 60 50 90 10
NATCHEZ 84 66 79 56 / 10 90 70 10
GREENVILLE 81 61 69 48 / 20 90 20 0
GREENWOOD 84 62 72 48 / 20 90 40 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/DL
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