459
FXUS64 KJAN 302001
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
TONIGHT-MONDAY AFTERNOON:
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING/NOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL HELP CONVECTION TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE: DAMAGING GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL (UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES
(STRONG TORNADOES WILL POSSIBLE NEAR HAMBURG TO COLUMBUS AND
NORTHWARD). HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS THE RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS AS
THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS. HWO GRAPHICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
WEEK. A DRYING PERIOD WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WET CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN, A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-WEST ALONG WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ONGOING SHOWERS/T-STORM CHANCES. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT MOST TAF SITES AT 1730Z.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z BUT SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS EAST AND
SE MS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTN. VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 04Z WHEN
TSRA/SHRA WL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS TSRA ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THROUGH 14Z MON BEFORE ENDING IN THE SE. REDUCED
CONDITIONS INCLUDING A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TAF SITES IN THE WEST AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WL SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z WHILE LOWER RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE IN THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 78 53 82 / 90 80 10 10
MERIDIAN 63 80 51 82 / 60 90 10 10
VICKSBURG 64 76 54 83 / 90 50 10 10
HATTIESBURG 67 84 58 85 / 30 90 10 20
NATCHEZ 66 79 58 82 / 90 70 10 10
GREENVILLE 60 70 48 77 / 90 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 72 49 79 / 90 30 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SW/SW/22
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