456
FXUS64 KJAN 310248
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IT DEFINITELY SEEMS THE LATER TIMING SOLUTIONS ARE PANNING OUT FOR
ONSET AS TONIGHT'S EVENT CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN APPRECIABLE RAMP UP IN SEVERE THREAT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF I-20 PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SPC HAS ADJUSTED THEIR SEVERE WIND
PROBS UP AND EXPANDED THEIR ENHANCED RISK AREA FARTHER SOUTH
ACCORDINGLY. LOCAL CHANGES TO OUR GHWO GRAPHICS REFLECT THESE
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NOW IN THE
ENHANCED RISK. OTHERWISE, HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS. WHILE THE ONSET TIMING IS SLOW, EXPECT THAT
WE'LL SEE THE END TIMES WORK OUT OKAY, OR EVEN BE TOO SLOW, WITH
THE ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE SYTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS TO AROUND DAYBREAK. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
TONIGHT-MONDAY AFTERNOON:
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING/NOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL HELP CONVECTION TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE: DAMAGING GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL (UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES
(STRONG TORNADOES WILL POSSIBLE NEAR HAMBURG TO COLUMBUS AND
NORTHWARD). HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS THE RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS AS
THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS. HWO GRAPHICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
WEEK. A DRYING PERIOD WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WET CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN, A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-WEST ALONG WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ONGOING SHOWERS/T-STORM CHANCES. /SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TO BE RELATED TO OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...+TSRA MAY IMPACT ALL SITES AT SOME
POINT WITH SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, POOR CONDITIONS RELATED TO LOW CEILINGS/VSBY ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 78 53 82 / 90 80 10 10
MERIDIAN 63 80 51 82 / 60 90 10 10
VICKSBURG 64 76 54 83 / 70 50 10 10
HATTIESBURG 67 84 58 85 / 30 90 10 20
NATCHEZ 66 79 58 82 / 80 70 10 10
GREENVILLE 60 70 48 77 / 80 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 72 49 79 / 80 30 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/
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