517
FXUS64 KJAN 310547
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IT DEFINITELY SEEMS THE LATER TIMING SOLUTIONS ARE PANNING OUT FOR
ONSET AS TONIGHT'S EVENT CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN APPRECIABLE RAMP UP IN SEVERE THREAT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF I-20 PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SPC HAS ADJUSTED THEIR SEVERE WIND
PROBS UP AND EXPANDED THEIR ENHANCED RISK AREA FARTHER SOUTH
ACCORDINGLY. LOCAL CHANGES TO OUR GHWO GRAPHICS REFLECT THESE
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NOW IN THE
ENHANCED RISK. OTHERWISE, HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS. WHILE THE ONSET TIMING IS SLOW, EXPECT THAT
WE'LL SEE THE END TIMES WORK OUT OKAY, OR EVEN BE TOO SLOW, WITH
THE ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE SYTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS TO AROUND DAYBREAK. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
TONIGHT-MONDAY AFTERNOON:
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING/NOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLY INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL HELP CONVECTION TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE: DAMAGING GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL (UP TO HEN EGG SIZE), AND TORNADOES
(STRONG TORNADOES WILL POSSIBLE NEAR HAMBURG TO COLUMBUS AND
NORTHWARD). HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS THE RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS AS
THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS. HWO GRAPHICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT:
LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID
WEEK. A DRYING PERIOD WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WET CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN, A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-WEST ALONG WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ONGOING SHOWERS/T-STORM CHANCES. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ALL SITES WILL SEE +TSRA
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES AS
THIS SEVERE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW CEILINGS/VSBY WILL RESULT IN POOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. PIB COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 12Z MONDAY - 14Z MONDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 53 82 69 / 80 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 80 51 82 66 / 90 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 76 54 83 69 / 50 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 84 58 85 69 / 90 10 20 0
NATCHEZ 79 58 82 70 / 70 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 70 48 77 68 / 20 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 72 49 79 70 / 30 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/CR
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