814
FXUS64 KJAN 310942
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CURRENT RADAR SCANS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A ORGANIZED LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
MS, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING: DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND LARGE
HAIL (UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE). TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE
OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
SEVERE GRAPHIC AND A "ENHANCED" RISK (3 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENT EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
IS STILL SHOWING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0". HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL SHOWING A STRONG QPF SIGNAL FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS, NORTH MS, EAST MS, PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-2.0" ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE "LIMITED"
RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH TO COVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS COULD SEE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOKING AHEAD INTO TONIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE STARTING
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH. AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 WILL SEE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE, AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET GIVING US A BRIEF LITTLE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION LOOKING AHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WHEN OUR OUR NEXT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD OCCUR.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BETTER IN AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL INCONSISTENCIES THAT REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE GRAPHIC FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WE GET CLOSER. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS CHANCES LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NORTH OF OUR CWA. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ALL SITES WILL SEE +TSRA
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES AS
THIS SEVERE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW CEILINGS/VSBY WILL RESULT IN POOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. PIB COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 12Z MONDAY - 14Z MONDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 51 82 68 / 80 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 80 49 81 66 / 90 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 76 51 83 69 / 40 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 82 57 85 68 / 90 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 78 56 82 69 / 60 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 69 48 77 68 / 10 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 71 48 78 69 / 30 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR
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