859
FXUS64 KJAN 311947
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
247 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ROOT TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AN OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS WITH BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING ENTRENCHING IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID OUR COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST BUT A DAY AT MOST
WITH A RAPID RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW REBOUNDING OUR TEMPERATURES
AFTER TONIGHT'S UNSEASONABLE LOWS. GENERALLY PUT, LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF I-20, WHILE LONG AND NORTH OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S.
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE 80S SOUTH OF I-20, AND UPPER 70S TO THE NORTH ARE TO BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TUESDAY WILL SEE HUMIDITY
VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 55% AMONG SOUTHERN ZONES, THUS THE HEAT INDEX
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURE, YET REMAIN
BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY LOWS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING SHARPENS INTO A MERIDIONAL RIDGE WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH FOLLOWING SUITE, ALL IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW
TRANSITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTH PERIPHERIES OF THE CWA SOME TIME AFTER
MID DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED
TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
PRECISE TRACKING OF THIS FRONT SO A WATCHFUL EYE WILL BE NEEDED AS
WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TO REITERATE THE FRONT
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70MPH, HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, AND TORNADOES ARE
LIKELY; AND AT THIS MOMENT WE ARE FORECASTING THE PRIMARY BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS WILL LIE ALONG OUR NORTH EASTERN QUADRANT: RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA THROUGH TO STARKVILLE.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET. AS
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY, EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS FROM LONGER
LIVED CELLS.
THURSDAY...
SHOULD THE FRONT STALL WHERE WE ARE PROJECTING, A RENEWED BOUT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG IT AFTER SUNRISE. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL REINVIGORATE LATENT FRONTAL INSTABILITY, SPARKING A CONTINUATION
OF WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TAMPERED IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAY'S CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING; WITH SEVERE CELLS BEING LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MAX WINDS/HAIL PROJECTED TO TOP OUT AT 60MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE RESPECTIVELY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH A
CRESCENDO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WANE WITH THE SUN.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
THE STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY AMBLE THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING FOR A
"RINSE AND REPEAT" FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THUNDERSTORMS
SPARK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, REACHING A CRESCENDO BY MID
AFTERNOON AND WANING INTO SHOWERS WITH THE SETTING SUN. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST A FEW MILES DAILY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THE AREA. THIS TROUGH, BEING DEEPER, WILL GIVE OUR
STALLED OUT FRONT ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FULLY TRAVERSE THE AREA. THE
THERMAL PROFILE WILL SHIFT DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FRONT
PASSING. EXPECT LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REACH UNSEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES: INTO THE MID 40S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL
REMAIN SO FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH NO OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE TAF PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 80 68 88 / 0 0 10 20
MERIDIAN 47 80 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 50 81 69 88 / 0 10 10 20
HATTIESBURG 54 82 67 86 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 54 80 69 87 / 0 10 0 20
GREENVILLE 47 76 67 86 / 0 0 20 50
GREENWOOD 47 78 68 87 / 0 0 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/
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